The electric car has had more false dawns than England's football team. A hundred years ago, there were more electric cars on US roads than petrol-powered vehicles. Then the Model T Ford and cheap Texan oil came along.
In the 70s, in the wake of the Arab oil crisis, there were numerous suggestions that the future was electric. I recently read an article about a "bold new British electric car project", the Enfield, bankrolled by a Greek shipping magnate. The story appeared in the reputable Design magazine — in 1974.
When General Motors' EV1 was launched in 1996, it seemed that the tide had finally turned in favour of electric cars. The world's biggest auto maker was mass producing battery-powered cars, and all its petrol-powered vehicles suddenly looked about as modern as the dodo. Except nobody bought one.
So what's different this time? Unlike in 1912, 1974 and 1996, many of the world's car makers are now convinced that the electric vehicle (EV) has strong consumer appeal. The need to cut carbon emissions isn't going away, nor is America's determination to wean itself off Middle Eastern oil. Plus, crucially, a century of development has finally improved on the clumsy and ponderous lead-acid battery, which powered electric cars in the early 20th century and still powers — with the same short driving range — most of those little electric buggies that slowly ply London's streets.
The first EV that can claim to offer similar price, practicality and performance of a petrol car is the Nissan Leaf, which will be built in the UK (at Sunderland) and goes on sale early next year. After the government's 'low carbon' £5,000 grant, it will sell for just over £23,000. It seats five, looks like it's been designed for normal use rather than Noddy and has similar acceleration to the same-size Ford Focus or Volkswagen Golf.
I drove a Leaf recently in Japan. The major differences compared with a petrol hatchback are the welcome absence of any engine racket, the eager low-speed acceleration (an electric motor develops maximum torque almost instantly) and the lack of gear changing (electric motors have much bigger rev bands, so you don't need a stepped transmission).
Rather than the sound of petrol combusting, when you turn on the ignition, you get an electronic welcome tune. No doubt you will soon be able to download thousands of 'ignition tones' — not a problem for what is probably the world's best-connected car. Your iPhone can set recharge times and the car will ring you when it's fully charged.
But before you get too excited about the electric revolution, consider this: Nissan expects EV volumes to be no better than ten per cent of its total car sales by 2020. The limitation to world domination is the battery. The new-fangled lithium ion batteries, as used in the Leaf (and in most new-generation EVs), are night-and-day compared with old-style batteries. But even they have a limited range — in the Leaf, it's about 100 miles — followed by the need for a time-consuming recharge (eight hours from empty). That's just perfect for daily commuting in the city, the Leaf's natural milieu. But it's not enough to replace petrol and diesel cars as everyday all-purpose transport.
The carmakers are starting to love EVs and there's no doubt the Leaf will be a seminal vehicle. Scores of new EVs will follow. But they all agree: there's life left in the internal combustion engine yet.
Gavin Green is a motoring journalist and consultant
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