The rise of smartphones, together with the simultaneous and related spread of mobile broadband services, is seemingly unstoppable. Even in the midst of a global economic downturn, worldwide sales of the devices are growing by almost 100 per cent a year according to research firm Gartner. While Apple's iPhone 4 is still regarded by many as the gold standard, other smartphones are also selling in large numbers, such as RIM's BlackBerries — popular with teenagers — and Nokia's N Series. Many new models will be on show at the Mobile World Congress, the mobile industry's biggest annual event, in Barcelona this month.
Investment bank Morgan Stanley has predicted that by 2015 more people will connect to the internet via mobile devices than via desktop PCs, while mobile operator Vodafone says 30 per cent of its European customers already use their mobile devices regularly to access the Internet. Mobile operators are attempting to respond to this fast-growing demand for mobile internet services by deploying better and faster networks, using sophisticated mobile broadband technologies, such as Long-Term Evolution (LTE), that can deliver peak download speeds of up to 100 Mbps. LTE networks are now live in 12 countries, including Hong Kong, Sweden, Norway and the US, and a further 166 LTE networks are planned, including for the UK (although not until 2014 at the earliest).
These LTE networks will enhance the existing mobile broadband infrastructure, which mostly uses a technology called High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) to deliver download speeds of up to 14.4 Mbps. HSPA networks can be upgraded in stages using HSPA+ technologies to run at peak speeds of between 21Mbps and 42 Mbps. Worldwide, 70 HSPA networks have been upgraded in this way. With more spectrum, HSPA+ networks could be configured to hit peak speeds of 84Mbps.
But even with the help of these advanced network technologies, for mobile operators keeping up with the soaring demand for mobile data services will feel a bit like painting the Forth Bridge. The smartphone revolution, along with a parallel rise in the use of mobile broadband dongles for PCs, has led to an extraordinary threefold increase in data traffic on the world's mobile networks in the past year, according to Ericsson.
Mobile broadband services are also becoming very popular in developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, where fixed-line broadband connections are scarce. In many cases, the only way for a household to get internet access is over a mobile broadband network. This means that for many, their first experience of the internet will be on a mobile phone. Today, many conventional handsets have good enough browsers to provide a respectable internet experience to people who can't afford a smartphone. Even the illiterate can get online through specially designed icon-based mobile web sites. Community internet cafes, typically connected to the web via a mobile network, serve people who can only afford a very basic handset or no handset at all. Mobile networks now cover approximately 90 per cent of the world's population. Even in Africa, the poorest continent on earth, there is one mobile connection for every two people.
So what comes next? At the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona this month, we can expect to see demos of HD and even 3D smartphones. The next wave of these devices will be equipped with very powerful dual-core processors, similar to those used in laptops, supporting high-definition video recording and playback on very high-res displays. Some models will sport screens that can show three-dimensional images (without the need for special glasses), so you will be able to watch a 3D movie on your phone.
Another concept under development is the haptic screen, which will be able to move, interacting with a person through the sense of touch. With this technology, your partner, for example, could kiss the screen of their phone. That kiss would be converted into data, relayed over the mobile network and recreated on your handset, so you could actually feel the kiss by holding the display of your phone to your face.
We may also see the emergence of "perceptive" phones, which use a combination of in-built sensors and data provided by both the mobile network and GPS satellites to become aware of their surroundings, location and motion. These handsets will be able to anticipate some of their owners' needs and desires, automatically diverting incoming calls to voicemail if you are in a meeting or proactively flagging up train delays as you leave for the station.
As the coverage and performance of mobile networks improves further, smartphones will increasingly tap the processing power of the Cloud (remote computer servers) to enable demanding apps, such as the accurate dictation of emails and on-the-fly translation services. Once there is near-ubiquitous coverage for mobile broadband, which will take some time, there is the potential for a shift from powerful smartphones towards devices just offering simple connectivity. In other words, an individual's phone would become the mobile equivalent of a fixed-line broadband modem today, using short-range wireless technologies to provide connectivity to peripherals optimised for specific purposes.
The mobile 'phone' would then no longer be a phone at all, but more of a hub, or a screenless modem that you wear as a bracelet or attached to a belt. This modem would use a short-range technology, such as Bluetooth, to relay data from the Cloud to an alternative user interface, perhaps a pair of electronic glasses with a built-in display. A nod of the head or wave of the hand could call up information about what you are looking at, play a video, display an email or update your social network with your location.
The modem could also connect to sensors located around your body monitoring your activity levels, your posture, your heart rate, your blood-sugar levels and other vital signs. If you were to collapse, the modem could send alerts to the local hospital and your relatives. The combination of rich content from external sources with location and perception data specific to the individual could also create a fundamental change in the way we shop, interact, are entertained and do business.
Over the next decade or so, we are also likely to see mobile connectivity spread much further. It is conceivable that the number of mobile connections worldwide will reach 50 billion by 2025, because as well as connecting conventional mobile phones and smartphones, mobile networks are increasingly being used to connect laptops, netbooks and tablet computers to the internet. What's more, other consumer electronics devices, such as e-readers and digital photo frames, are also being equipped with built-in mobile connections, so consumers can download new digital books or photographs at their convenience.
Beyond consumer electronics, there is also growing demand for embedding mobile connections into devices and machines ranging from utility meters to health monitors, environmental sensors and vehicles. In each case, this enables the creation of a smarter device that can provide its owner with very useful information. In Australia, scientists monitoring the health of the Great Barrier Reef use sensors attached to buoys to wirelessly transmit temperature and acidity data back to the mainland via an HSPA network.
In some cases, these connected devices can also be used to provide additional services. Connected utility meters, for example, can not only let a householder know how much energy they are using, but can also be used to switch the central heating or air-conditioning on or off.
Mobile connections embedded in vehicles can be used for everything from fleet management by haulage companies to providing in-car entertainment and information on traffic congestion and local amenities. Mobile connections can also be used to implement road tolls and improve road safety. In the EU, all new cars will have to be equipped with an eCall system from 2014 that will use the mobile networks to automatically send an alert if the vehicle is in an accident. When activated, eCall establishes a voice connection with the emergency services, while sending through critical data including time, location and vehicle identification. EC research suggests eCall could save up to 2,500 lives every year, reduce the severity of injuries by 10 to 15 per cent and cut emergency response times by up to 50 per cent.
In addition, in-built mobile connections can help tackle crime. In Brazil, the government is mandating that all new vehicles are equipped with anti-theft devices, which use the mobile networks to enable stolen cars to be remotely tracked and immobilised. Embedded mobile connections are also likely to be in the front line in the battle against climate change. They are already being used to continuously monitor the performance of some utility networks, adjusting supply to meet demand and thereby reducing wastage and greenhouse gas emissions. For example, a million remote monitoring devices connected to China Mobile's network enable China Southern Power Grid to track its customers' electricity usage in real-time so that it can better estimate ongoing demand.
The mobile industry has the potential to cut greenhouse gas emissions in other industrial sectors by five times its own carbon footprint. The GSMA estimates that by 2020 mobile technologies could lower emissions in sectors such as utilities, transport and property equivalent to taking one in every three cars off the road.
While the rise of the smartphone is clearly the biggest story in the mobile industry today, the rise of the connected car, the smart meter and the smart building could well be the biggest "mobile" story of the next decade. By 2025, the mobile industry will certainly have changed beyond recognition and traditional handsets, with their 12-button keypads, may well be a very rare sight.
Dan Warren is senior director of technology at the GSMA. The Mobile World Congress runs in Barcelona from 14-17 February. Visit mobileworldcongress.com
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