For centuries, people have relied on experts to help them to make the right decisions. It was the Roman poet Virgil who, over 2,000 years ago, advised that we should "Believe an expert."
But in a world where so many claim to be experts, who should we most pay attention to? Perhaps we should listen to the experts who sound the most confident. After all, we intuitively know that people are more convinced by those who sound certain, right?
Actually, no. Recent studies suggest that rather than the most confident sounding expert being the most persuasive, it is often the recommendations and advice from experts who are themselves uncertain that will be more compelling.
A series of studies led by persuasion researcher Zakary Tormala from Stanford Business School has found that experts' influence over others increases when they express minor doubts about their advice and opinions. This is especially true when their advice concerns subjects where there is no one single clear answer.
In one of the studies, customers were shown a positive review for a new restaurant by a well-known and regularly published food critic. However, there were two different reviews with different levels of certainty. In the high-certainty condition the reviewer wrote, "I ate dinner there and can confidently give this restaurant a 4-star rating." In the low-certainty recommendation, the reviewer said, "Because I have only eaten there once I am not completely confident in my opinion but, for now, I award this restaurant 4 stars."
The latter proved to be more persuasive. In explaining their findings, the researchers point out that because people generally expect experts to be certain of their opinions, when they signal potential uncertainties about their message we become more intrigued and drawn in to what they are saying. As a result, when an expert has a strong case to make, admitting an element of uncertainty about it actually leads to more people being persuaded.
So when it comes to making decisions this study suggests that instead of following Virgil's advice to the letter we should, in certain circumstances, "believe an uncertain expert." And when it comes to persuading others about the merits and benefits of the products and services we have to offer, assuming our case is a strong one, it would seem sensible that, rather than hide or cover up minor drawbacks and weaknesses in our case, we instead embrace them in the knowledge that they can actually make us more persuasive.
Steve Martin is co-author of Yes! 50 Secrets from the Science of Persuasion. Follow him on Twitter at @scienceofyes. Visit scienceofyes.com.
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